Topic: UFC Fight Night
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
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- Saturday 12.17.2022 at 04:00 PM ET
- U.S. Broadcast: ESPN+ | Prelims: ESPN+
- Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
- Ownership: Endeavor
- Venue: UFC Apex
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Enclosure: Octagon
- TV Announcers: Brendan Fitzgerald, Dominick Cruz, Paul Felder, Charly Arnoldt
- Ring Announcer: Joe Martinez
- Post-Fight Interviews: Paul Felder
- MMA Bouts: 13
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Promotion Links:
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Event Links:
| Bout | Info | |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier defeats Sean Strickland via Decision, Split | 5 Rounds, 25:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Arman Tsarukyan defeats Damir Ismagulov via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Amir Albazi defeats Alessandro Costa via KO/TKO, Uppercut to Ground Punches | 2:13 Round 3 of 3, 12:13 Total Bout Page | |
| Alex Caceres defeats Julian Erosa via KO/TKO, Head Kick and Punches | 3:04 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page | |
| Drew Dober defeats Bobby Green via KO/TKO, Left Hook | 2:45 Round 2 of 3, 7:45 Total Bout Page | |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk defeats Cody Brundage via KO/TKO, Punches and Hammerfists | 3:16 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page | |
| Cory McKenna defeats Cheyanne Vlismas via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Matthew Semelsberger defeats Jake Matthews via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Said Nurmagomedov defeats Saidyokub Kakhramonov via Submission, Guillotine Choke | 3:50 Round 2 of 3, 8:50 Total Bout Page | |
| Rafa García defeats Maheshate Hayisaer via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov defeats Bryan Battle via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Manel Kape defeats David Dvořák via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Sergey Morozov defeats Journey Newson via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page |
Responses Page 33
12.16.2022 | 3:07 PM ET
You guys really think battle will win on short notice ? How long has he had to prepare?
12.16.2022 | 3:08 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 3002nd
Wow forgot how good DamirVGuram was Arman striking is way behind either of them he must wrestle to win.
I probably would have scored it for Damir based on damage, Guram was busted up from the jabs.
The knee was borderline, smiliar to Jon Jones and Anderson Vs Chael sonnen,
Oddly Guram did not argue he would have known if he had any purchase on Damirs dome.
Arman should win grappling though and should be a great fight!
I probably would have scored it for Damir based on damage, Guram was busted up from the jabs.
The knee was borderline, smiliar to Jon Jones and Anderson Vs Chael sonnen,
Oddly Guram did not argue he would have known if he had any purchase on Damirs dome.
Arman should win grappling though and should be a great fight!
"“I took no damage,” Hill said. “Most of the fall was me falling down"
-
- paulopasta
12.16.2022 | 3:13 PM ET
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 500 Points | Tied for 1896th
I think Battle will win despite the lack of preperation. He's shown significant improvement
12.16.2022 | 3:33 PM ET
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points | Tied for 1288th
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
12.16.2022 | 3:35 PM ET
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points | Tied for 1288th
Man its maybe genetics but Cannonier looks proper ripped Sean looks skinny after weight in I might change my pick
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
12.16.2022 | 3:38 PM ET
🌠
i love when you count me out
still smoking on illuminati loud
till the day we die or join
passing time puffing big clouds
unrelated
Ross should not go bald
bit too pudgy for that
get those checks bro
distract distract distract
next generation will be so wack
cars exclusive to government tracks
everyone living in shacks
flavored insects for snacks
who wants next
prison mike wants back to back!
Jake when you visited White House
did they warn you'd slur for racks
boom roasted
cannot undo the thmacks
still smoking on illuminati loud
till the day we die or join
passing time puffing big clouds
unrelated
Ross should not go bald
bit too pudgy for that
get those checks bro
distract distract distract
next generation will be so wack
cars exclusive to government tracks
everyone living in shacks
flavored insects for snacks
who wants next
prison mike wants back to back!
Jake when you visited White House
did they warn you'd slur for racks
boom roasted
cannot undo the thmacks
* Edited at 12.16.2022, 4:56 PM ET *
12.16.2022 | 3:44 PM ET
Wasteland
Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 625 Points | Tied for 408th
Jared a 5’11 former heavyweight while Sean is a 6’1 former welterweight, that might explain thing about that
"Quack quack quack"
-
- Hippie
12.16.2022 | 3:49 PM ET
Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 575 Points | Tied for 894th
Alex Caceres got the bad@ss lookN FrO! Love it!
Sean just walks around talking to himself.. 🥴 ******* nut been hit too many times..
Sean just walks around talking to himself.. 🥴 ******* nut been hit too many times..
12.16.2022 | 3:53 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 3002nd
Height reach is ok but sean is super undersized for a middi probably worse than till or gastellum really and that dude is 5 9 ish.
"“I took no damage,” Hill said. “Most of the fall was me falling down"
12.16.2022 | 3:53 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 490 Points | Tied for 2142nd
Cannonier vs. Strickland
Sean Strickland, TKO, R3
Leg Kicks add up and slow Jared down, Jared looks for the KO highlight while ironically Strickland plays it patient and chips away. As soon as Jared visibily slows down Strickland unloads on him. I think it ends up being too much, two huge punches land and huge kick sends Jared all over the place. Ends up falling. Strickland TKO finish.
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Arman Tsarukyan, DEC
I think Damir style can definitely get this done, I think a pissed off Arman enters this fight and he fights with urgency and power. 29-28 Uni,
Albazi vs. Costa
Amir Albazi, SUB, R1
Kneebar. I think he might get cracked early, and then he scrambles for any submission he looks for, he snatches a leg during Costa's ground and pound.
Caceres vs. Erosa
Julian Erosa, DEC
30-27, 29-28x2 Uni.
Dober vs. Green
Drew Dober, TKO, R2
I think Dober has turned a leaf, and I think Bobby will need some time to get comfortable, and that takes too long. Hooks to GnP finish.
Brundage vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R2
I think Michal cracks Brundage early. a Hook sits Brundage down, Michal finishes with a flurry of punches until the ref jumps in thankfully.
Vlismas vs. McKenna
Cory McKenna, SUB, R2
Armbar, I thinnk Cheyanna does well but gets very careless and extends an arm for some unnecessary ground and pound.
Matthews vs. Semelsberger
Jake Matthews, DEC
Real close 29-28 Uni.
Nurmagomedov vs. Kakhramonov
Saidyokub Kakhramonov, TKO, R3
Late TKO, just a non-stop barrage from Yokub. Ref sees enough.
Maheshate vs. García
Maheshate, DEC
Split 29-28x2, 28-29 Close but Mahe sticks and moves well, bloodies up a tough Rafa.
Battle vs. Fakhretdinov
Bryan Battle, SUB, R3
RNC late but on the way to dec victory.
Dvořák vs. Kape
Manel Kape, DEC
Hard fought good fight, Kape split 30-27, 29-28, 28-29
Morozov vs. Newson
Sergey Morozov, DEC
30-27x3 Uni.
Sean Strickland, TKO, R3
Leg Kicks add up and slow Jared down, Jared looks for the KO highlight while ironically Strickland plays it patient and chips away. As soon as Jared visibily slows down Strickland unloads on him. I think it ends up being too much, two huge punches land and huge kick sends Jared all over the place. Ends up falling. Strickland TKO finish.
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Arman Tsarukyan, DEC
I think Damir style can definitely get this done, I think a pissed off Arman enters this fight and he fights with urgency and power. 29-28 Uni,
Albazi vs. Costa
Amir Albazi, SUB, R1
Kneebar. I think he might get cracked early, and then he scrambles for any submission he looks for, he snatches a leg during Costa's ground and pound.
Caceres vs. Erosa
Julian Erosa, DEC
30-27, 29-28x2 Uni.
Dober vs. Green
Drew Dober, TKO, R2
I think Dober has turned a leaf, and I think Bobby will need some time to get comfortable, and that takes too long. Hooks to GnP finish.
Brundage vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R2
I think Michal cracks Brundage early. a Hook sits Brundage down, Michal finishes with a flurry of punches until the ref jumps in thankfully.
Vlismas vs. McKenna
Cory McKenna, SUB, R2
Armbar, I thinnk Cheyanna does well but gets very careless and extends an arm for some unnecessary ground and pound.
Matthews vs. Semelsberger
Jake Matthews, DEC
Real close 29-28 Uni.
Nurmagomedov vs. Kakhramonov
Saidyokub Kakhramonov, TKO, R3
Late TKO, just a non-stop barrage from Yokub. Ref sees enough.
Maheshate vs. García
Maheshate, DEC
Split 29-28x2, 28-29 Close but Mahe sticks and moves well, bloodies up a tough Rafa.
Battle vs. Fakhretdinov
Bryan Battle, SUB, R3
RNC late but on the way to dec victory.
Dvořák vs. Kape
Manel Kape, DEC
Hard fought good fight, Kape split 30-27, 29-28, 28-29
Morozov vs. Newson
Sergey Morozov, DEC
30-27x3 Uni.
12.16.2022 | 4:07 PM ET
Predictions: 2 of 3 Winners, 1 Perfect, 125 Points | Tied for 4019th
Aw man Said Nurmagomedov with the theatrics when he doesn’t normally do theatrics
"WMMA = 50/50 no matter the odds"
12.16.2022 | 4:39 PM ET
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points | Tied for 1288th
Alhamdullah Said will bring honor and virtue to the noble tribes of the mountains, he walks in the light and follows and serves the lord with obedience
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
12.16.2022 | 4:39 PM ET
HOW PRISON MIKE MAKES HIS LAME ASS RHYMES
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 400 Points | Tied for 3105th
Disgrace to even call these rhymes because they don't rhyme.
STEP 1
Select some random picture from Podcast/UFC fight/NBA game
STEP 2
Do bad photoshop of Steve Carells face into said picture. If having a bad day or did not take meds that morning also insert face of alter ego/split personality Tartara
STEP 3
Google News search for random news events in Finance/Politics/Sport
STEP 4
Write down random words and names from said news articles
STEP 5
Put these words in random order to make sentence. Sentence does not have to be connected with previous sentence or even make sense. Important thing is that last word rhymes with last word of previous sentence... but its ok if it doesn't too
STEP 6
Post above on Tapology in BOLD FONT
STEP 7
Get trolled and ridiculed
STEP 8
Log into alternate account "Tartara"
STEP 9
Put up picture of flea bitten mutt extending middle finger and add random words ending in "**** tropical beach"
STEP 10
Repeat
STEP 1
Select some random picture from Podcast/UFC fight/NBA game
STEP 2
Do bad photoshop of Steve Carells face into said picture. If having a bad day or did not take meds that morning also insert face of alter ego/split personality Tartara
STEP 3
Google News search for random news events in Finance/Politics/Sport
STEP 4
Write down random words and names from said news articles
STEP 5
Put these words in random order to make sentence. Sentence does not have to be connected with previous sentence or even make sense. Important thing is that last word rhymes with last word of previous sentence... but its ok if it doesn't too
STEP 6
Post above on Tapology in BOLD FONT
STEP 7
Get trolled and ridiculed
STEP 8
Log into alternate account "Tartara"
STEP 9
Put up picture of flea bitten mutt extending middle finger and add random words ending in "**** tropical beach"
STEP 10
Repeat
"Positivity is a positive"
12.16.2022 | 4:41 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 500 Points | Tied for 1999th
Dvořák vs. Kape
Manel Kape, TKO, R3
this card can be characterized by top tier matchmaking and the same thing can be said about this fight specifically. both very evenly matched and they're both stylistically built in a way to bring out the best qualities from one another. this is another fight in which I don't fully agree with the tapology odds but I wouldn't go as far as to say they're very far off from the reality of this matchup (would personally probably put Kape at around 70-75% chance of winning).
starting with Manel Kape, I'm going to briefly mention the things everyone knows about him before jumping into the technical and strategical aspect of his game. incredibly athletic striker with an emphasis on his boxing (mainly started off training Muay Thai but quickly fell in love with his hands and has paid more attention to his boxing in the later part of his career), dynamite in his hands (especially his right hand) compared to the weight class he fights in, immesurable experience for how young he is and a granite chin coupled with a pretty good gas tank. strugged early on in his ufc career with some very close decisions that IMO could have been won if he simply raised the output of his strikes but he seems to have addressed this issue (not as much as I would like him to but the improvement is surely there).
moving on to the things he likes to do strategically and putting a bit more emphasis on the technical side of his striking. I think the main thing that is going to be the most relevant part in this fight that's worth analyzing is his stance selection and what he ends up doing out of each stance. generally, you will see Kape fighting out of both orthodox and southpaw but also briefly utilizing the very square prototypical muay thai stance to move forward. when it comes to his striking game out of the orthodox stance (which IMO is the stance in which his game flows the best in and the stance that would probably serve him a bit better against Dvorak), he seems to be almost entirely abandoning the kicks from his game and he weirdly turns his full attention to attacks with his hands (very rarely, against a mirroring orthodox fighter like Dvorak, he will throw an outside low kick successfully but he simply doesn't do it enough). his entire thought process when he's fighting out of orthodox can be boiled down to how is he going to manage to get to either his straight right or his right hook. some of the tools he uses to set it up are the check left hook, the flying knee and the jump in knee. all those strikes, most of the time, are thrown as a disguise to hide the straight right/right hook behind them and this is true especially for the jump in knee, he's really good at using his explosive athleticism to close the distance and catch his opponent by surprise with it only to end up hiding the right hand behind it and if he had to be characterized by a signature move, the jump in knee would be it. when it comes to his striking game out of the southpaw stance, his striking game suddenly shifts to a more kick-oriented gameplan. out of southpaw, you will see Kape utilizing his kicks way more, looking to land a decent variety of kicks including the left high kick, spinning hook kick (he's weirdly obsessed with the spinning hook kick even though he hasn't really ever landed it clean successfully) and the inside calf kick. he loves hunting the check right hook in this stance and is weirdly powerful with it. lastly, he's super quick to switch back to orthodox at the right time just to end up looking for that jump-in (basically a step knee but Kape is so athletically gifted that his motion just ends up being a slight jump) with his right knee (Duane Ludwig has a pretty good video on youtube about footwork when it comes to switching stances to throw the step knee).
now, about the flaws in his game which IMO are very noticable and very exploitable by a higher level striker than Dvorak and ultimately these are the things that make Kape a bit overrated in my opinion. for how proficient he is at utilizing both stances of fighting, southpaw AND orthodox, he doesn't switch between them efficiently and he hasn't developed a shifting strategy at all. to expand a little more on that, when you look at other UFC strikers who are very comfortable at fighting out of both stances like Poirier, Yan and Dillashaw, they've developed a very efficient strategy of utilizing their stance-switching to close the distance (this is called shifting and I basically mention it in every single striking analysis I make because of how useful it is in a standup fight). Kape, instead of shifting, he will only switch stances according to how he wants to fight at any given moment. he wants to be kicking more? he'll just plant his feet and switch to southpaw. he wants to be throwing his hands more? he'll just plant his feet and switch to orthodox. it's borderline infuriating for someone as talented as him not to be utilizing this part of stirking. another thing that IMO could get exposed in this fight is how easily his lead leg can get chewed up with calf kicks, ESPECIALLY when he's fighting out of southpaw. he hasn't shown any credible kick-checking abilities and he also seems very content with eating them instead of just switching stances. generally, his striking defense when he's fighting out of southpaw seems to be very noticably decreasing compared to his striking defense out of orthodox (his defense in orthodox isn't great either but it becomes more glaring when he's fighting out of southpaw). on top of his poor southpaw leg kick defense, he also very glaringly seems to be dropping his left hand leaving himself open to massive counter right hooks and crosses (this particular flaw in his game got exposed pretty badly in the horiguchi fight but we've also seen glimpses of it happening in the ufc as well). lastly, his jab is basically non existent (a well developed jab would seriously fix a lot of his issues plus Dvorak isn't good at avoiding the jab either so this is costing him in this fight) and his head movement is nowhere near close to satisfactory.
on to dvorak now, primarily an orthodox striker with a competent offensive submission game, at first glance he possesses a tight boxing defense, wide stance, controls the octagon, moves forward and can be generally described as an okay fighter. particulary, some of the positive stuff he likes to do (trust me, for someone with his record, surprisingly there aren't many things he execls at), he's got a very solid stance and very good octagon awareness, he's light on his knees and is constantly bouncing and changing levels with his legs as he's moving in. when he's fighting lower level strikers, he's really good at spotting their weaknesses and, more specifically, forcing them to circle towards the direction he wants to (very obvious example of this is the espinosa fight, forced espinosa to circle towards the right leg of dvorak - basically espinosa's left hand side- making it way easier for dvorak to abuse the calf kicks and end up winning the fight because of it). lastly, he's a scrappy fighter and can take a punch.
when it comes to the stuff he's bad at, there's a large portion of them that warrants a more technical look into his game. despite his guard and striking defense at first glance looking OK, he's very quick to start throwing massive overloaded right hands during which he very badly drops his left hand making him open for counter rights (note: out of southpaw Kape has a sick check right hook and out of orthodox Kape knows how to set up his right hand). another instance in which he very obviously has tragic striking defense is his leg kicks. every time he decides to throw a leg kick, both of his hands drop and his guard goes out the window (but especially his left hand). additionally, in the nicolau fight, he showed he's absolutely terrible at dealing with left hooks (this isn't a terrible thing in this matchup because Kape out of southpaw doesn't really throw the left hook and out of orthodox he only throws the check left hook to set up his straight right but in the same vain that nicolau abused the left hook, Kape can abuse the left high kick). another issue derives from how wide his stance is, his wide stance makes him susceptible to calf kicks that he doesn't really know how to defend at an efficient level. last two things I want to mention are how predictable his double-jab set up attacks are (as soon as a striker like Kape gets the read and the timing down, he should be able to land a check hook right inbetween of Dvorak's jabs and stop him right in his tracks) and lastly how his fight iq crumbles once the fight slightly goes off track (huge example of this is how successful he was with the calf kicks against nicolau but as soon as nicolau realized he shouldnt be circling towards Dvorak's right leg (nicolau's left side), Dvorak simply stopped throwing the calf kicks).
my prediction on this fight varies on what Kape decides to do with his stances. Kape can either choose to fight southpaw and utilize his kicking and knee game (in this type of fight, Kape will have to turn to the leg kicks, slowly start setting up a massive left high kick or a big right knee and utilize his check right hook as much as humanly possible), personally I do not suggest that Kape spends most of this fight in southpaw because his striking defense becomes worse in it and kicking isn't really how you beat Dvorak. If Kape fights orthodox, I expect him to badly expose Dvorak's ****** striking defense and end up catching him with a massive straight right or a right hook and end up putting him away in either r2 or r3. Basically, my overall prediction for this fight is that it's going to look veeeeeery competitive until Kape gets his reads and timing down and suddenly decides to blast Dvorak with a massive right hand and either badly rock Dvorak or put him away. (not betting on this fight btw, odds are simply not good enough for how exploitable some parts of Kape's game are)
Manel Kape, TKO, R3
this card can be characterized by top tier matchmaking and the same thing can be said about this fight specifically. both very evenly matched and they're both stylistically built in a way to bring out the best qualities from one another. this is another fight in which I don't fully agree with the tapology odds but I wouldn't go as far as to say they're very far off from the reality of this matchup (would personally probably put Kape at around 70-75% chance of winning).
starting with Manel Kape, I'm going to briefly mention the things everyone knows about him before jumping into the technical and strategical aspect of his game. incredibly athletic striker with an emphasis on his boxing (mainly started off training Muay Thai but quickly fell in love with his hands and has paid more attention to his boxing in the later part of his career), dynamite in his hands (especially his right hand) compared to the weight class he fights in, immesurable experience for how young he is and a granite chin coupled with a pretty good gas tank. strugged early on in his ufc career with some very close decisions that IMO could have been won if he simply raised the output of his strikes but he seems to have addressed this issue (not as much as I would like him to but the improvement is surely there).
moving on to the things he likes to do strategically and putting a bit more emphasis on the technical side of his striking. I think the main thing that is going to be the most relevant part in this fight that's worth analyzing is his stance selection and what he ends up doing out of each stance. generally, you will see Kape fighting out of both orthodox and southpaw but also briefly utilizing the very square prototypical muay thai stance to move forward. when it comes to his striking game out of the orthodox stance (which IMO is the stance in which his game flows the best in and the stance that would probably serve him a bit better against Dvorak), he seems to be almost entirely abandoning the kicks from his game and he weirdly turns his full attention to attacks with his hands (very rarely, against a mirroring orthodox fighter like Dvorak, he will throw an outside low kick successfully but he simply doesn't do it enough). his entire thought process when he's fighting out of orthodox can be boiled down to how is he going to manage to get to either his straight right or his right hook. some of the tools he uses to set it up are the check left hook, the flying knee and the jump in knee. all those strikes, most of the time, are thrown as a disguise to hide the straight right/right hook behind them and this is true especially for the jump in knee, he's really good at using his explosive athleticism to close the distance and catch his opponent by surprise with it only to end up hiding the right hand behind it and if he had to be characterized by a signature move, the jump in knee would be it. when it comes to his striking game out of the southpaw stance, his striking game suddenly shifts to a more kick-oriented gameplan. out of southpaw, you will see Kape utilizing his kicks way more, looking to land a decent variety of kicks including the left high kick, spinning hook kick (he's weirdly obsessed with the spinning hook kick even though he hasn't really ever landed it clean successfully) and the inside calf kick. he loves hunting the check right hook in this stance and is weirdly powerful with it. lastly, he's super quick to switch back to orthodox at the right time just to end up looking for that jump-in (basically a step knee but Kape is so athletically gifted that his motion just ends up being a slight jump) with his right knee (Duane Ludwig has a pretty good video on youtube about footwork when it comes to switching stances to throw the step knee).
now, about the flaws in his game which IMO are very noticable and very exploitable by a higher level striker than Dvorak and ultimately these are the things that make Kape a bit overrated in my opinion. for how proficient he is at utilizing both stances of fighting, southpaw AND orthodox, he doesn't switch between them efficiently and he hasn't developed a shifting strategy at all. to expand a little more on that, when you look at other UFC strikers who are very comfortable at fighting out of both stances like Poirier, Yan and Dillashaw, they've developed a very efficient strategy of utilizing their stance-switching to close the distance (this is called shifting and I basically mention it in every single striking analysis I make because of how useful it is in a standup fight). Kape, instead of shifting, he will only switch stances according to how he wants to fight at any given moment. he wants to be kicking more? he'll just plant his feet and switch to southpaw. he wants to be throwing his hands more? he'll just plant his feet and switch to orthodox. it's borderline infuriating for someone as talented as him not to be utilizing this part of stirking. another thing that IMO could get exposed in this fight is how easily his lead leg can get chewed up with calf kicks, ESPECIALLY when he's fighting out of southpaw. he hasn't shown any credible kick-checking abilities and he also seems very content with eating them instead of just switching stances. generally, his striking defense when he's fighting out of southpaw seems to be very noticably decreasing compared to his striking defense out of orthodox (his defense in orthodox isn't great either but it becomes more glaring when he's fighting out of southpaw). on top of his poor southpaw leg kick defense, he also very glaringly seems to be dropping his left hand leaving himself open to massive counter right hooks and crosses (this particular flaw in his game got exposed pretty badly in the horiguchi fight but we've also seen glimpses of it happening in the ufc as well). lastly, his jab is basically non existent (a well developed jab would seriously fix a lot of his issues plus Dvorak isn't good at avoiding the jab either so this is costing him in this fight) and his head movement is nowhere near close to satisfactory.
on to dvorak now, primarily an orthodox striker with a competent offensive submission game, at first glance he possesses a tight boxing defense, wide stance, controls the octagon, moves forward and can be generally described as an okay fighter. particulary, some of the positive stuff he likes to do (trust me, for someone with his record, surprisingly there aren't many things he execls at), he's got a very solid stance and very good octagon awareness, he's light on his knees and is constantly bouncing and changing levels with his legs as he's moving in. when he's fighting lower level strikers, he's really good at spotting their weaknesses and, more specifically, forcing them to circle towards the direction he wants to (very obvious example of this is the espinosa fight, forced espinosa to circle towards the right leg of dvorak - basically espinosa's left hand side- making it way easier for dvorak to abuse the calf kicks and end up winning the fight because of it). lastly, he's a scrappy fighter and can take a punch.
when it comes to the stuff he's bad at, there's a large portion of them that warrants a more technical look into his game. despite his guard and striking defense at first glance looking OK, he's very quick to start throwing massive overloaded right hands during which he very badly drops his left hand making him open for counter rights (note: out of southpaw Kape has a sick check right hook and out of orthodox Kape knows how to set up his right hand). another instance in which he very obviously has tragic striking defense is his leg kicks. every time he decides to throw a leg kick, both of his hands drop and his guard goes out the window (but especially his left hand). additionally, in the nicolau fight, he showed he's absolutely terrible at dealing with left hooks (this isn't a terrible thing in this matchup because Kape out of southpaw doesn't really throw the left hook and out of orthodox he only throws the check left hook to set up his straight right but in the same vain that nicolau abused the left hook, Kape can abuse the left high kick). another issue derives from how wide his stance is, his wide stance makes him susceptible to calf kicks that he doesn't really know how to defend at an efficient level. last two things I want to mention are how predictable his double-jab set up attacks are (as soon as a striker like Kape gets the read and the timing down, he should be able to land a check hook right inbetween of Dvorak's jabs and stop him right in his tracks) and lastly how his fight iq crumbles once the fight slightly goes off track (huge example of this is how successful he was with the calf kicks against nicolau but as soon as nicolau realized he shouldnt be circling towards Dvorak's right leg (nicolau's left side), Dvorak simply stopped throwing the calf kicks).
my prediction on this fight varies on what Kape decides to do with his stances. Kape can either choose to fight southpaw and utilize his kicking and knee game (in this type of fight, Kape will have to turn to the leg kicks, slowly start setting up a massive left high kick or a big right knee and utilize his check right hook as much as humanly possible), personally I do not suggest that Kape spends most of this fight in southpaw because his striking defense becomes worse in it and kicking isn't really how you beat Dvorak. If Kape fights orthodox, I expect him to badly expose Dvorak's ****** striking defense and end up catching him with a massive straight right or a right hook and end up putting him away in either r2 or r3. Basically, my overall prediction for this fight is that it's going to look veeeeeery competitive until Kape gets his reads and timing down and suddenly decides to blast Dvorak with a massive right hand and either badly rock Dvorak or put him away. (not betting on this fight btw, odds are simply not good enough for how exploitable some parts of Kape's game are)
* Edited at 12.16.2022, 4:48 PM ET *
12.16.2022 | 4:42 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 450 Points | Tied for 2662nd
lol bro wrote a novel 🤣
12.16.2022 | 4:57 PM ET
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points | Tied for 1288th
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
12.16.2022 | 5:03 PM ET
WasteLand
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 400 Points | Tied for 3105th
For real? That would make sense 😆😂🤣
"Positivity is a positive"
12.16.2022 | 5:06 PM ET
Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 615 Points | Tied for 569th
I don't know if Tartara is mentally sane enough to preserve a secret identity, so it hadn't ever occurred to me that he could be Prison Mike, but it would make sense. Both are bat**** insane so there's not really much work to be done
This user is suspended from posting until 9 years, 6 months, 4 weeks, 2 days, 18 hours, and 33 minutes from now.
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- paulopasta
12.16.2022 | 5:07 PM ET
el22
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 500 Points | Tied for 1896th
If you think that was long check out that dude Joseph Roy’s last post on the Grasso vs Araujo card. **** was as long as the epic of Gilgamesh
* Edited at 12.16.2022, 5:08 PM ET *