UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Lol Shots Fired

Brahimaj vs. Gorimbo
Themba Gorimbo, DEC
Strange fight to put on the main card imo. Neither guy is super impressive but Gorimbo has been more active by a big margin. Skill wise I think you could see Brahimaj being better but because of the inactivity I lean Themba. Could go either way imo

Nolan vs. Martinez
Tom Nolan, TKO, R1
Bounce back fight for Nolan which is funny because Motta was supposed to be his warm up fight before tougher competition. This time he’s actually going backwards to such an extent that if he loses this fight he should be cut imo. Martinez is so terrible by ufc standards. Monkey King isn’t a bad fighter imo but getting KOd by him is horrendous. Nolan is a striker by trade so if he ****s this up idek

* Edited at 05.12.2024, 6:42 PM ET *

Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro.

An interesting fight and a very close one to call in my book. I can see why Angela Hill is the favorite but I think the market might be a bit slow to react to what we've seen here. Obviously Angela Hill is a good muay thai fighter with a better output than Pinheiro and better cardio. She is probably physically stronger as well. However we've seen a bit of a shift in 2023 in Hill's game with a pivot to clinching/grappling which she has talked about openly.
It's not a bad fit for a strong and accomplished Muay Thai fighter like Hill but I don't think it's purely Angela developing that particular wrinkle in her game just by the by.

In both of her 2023 fights I think we see evidence for Hill slowing down. Both Dern and Gomes had success blitzing her with punches and landing multiple shots on Hill's chin which she was unable to get away from and which seemed to impact/rock her. I believe that's the reason why she engaged so much in the grappling realm with Dern, not because that would be Hill's first choice but that she was actually losing the striking exchanges in the first round and similiarly against Gomes it seemed to be a planned tactic to weather the storm. It's of course not the best look to lose in the striking realm vs Dern and would not imo have happened without Hill having slowed down.

Pinheiro utilizes the same sort of blitzes seen in these two fight and have been pretty devastating with them. She beat the **** out of Ribas in the first round with wild heavy swings and it sinched the win for her against Waterson who had the higher strike output but gave up the bigger moments to Pinheiro. If Angela counters with clinchwork Pinheiro has excellent judo which she will get a chance to implement.

I can see a scenario where Pinheiro takes the first round with power and aggression but slow down in the second half of the fight and Angela coming back to claim the 3rd. The question would then be the second round which I can see going either way.

I think this fight should be a pickem and not slanted toward one side or the other. We have the 30 year old with more power and more potential to improve and the skilled and experienced but aging veteran who now fights at age 39 for the first time. I think Pinheiro at current line of +130 is good value. Decision prop is always interesting for Hill because alongside Chookagian she is one of the most consistent decision fighters in the promotion and sometimes you get inexplicably high decision props.

Nolan vs Martinez
Nolan KO RD 1


big stay away fight for me. The quick turnaround really bothers me, not because of the ko tho, but because Nolan is so green he shouldn't be fighting right now. Watching tape before the Motta fight, I realized Nolan is way too green to be in the ufc (I picked him to win tho cuz Motta sucks). Hes powerful and huge for the weight class, but he doesn't understand a lot of the nuances of mma. For example, he had no idea how to switch stances & change up his entries against Motta; he stayed in the same stance & instead of throwing strikes he just kept stepping forward into the pocket. Also, being 6"3 and having no idea how to use it makes you almost useless & honestly makes your size a disadvantage since you are just a bigger target. These odds are also ridiculous considering how green he is. All this being said, I think Martinez is a pretty easy fight. Im not exactly sure what Martinez is good at other than durability and cardio. Hes built like a bag of milk and comes across as a nothing burger; he has some basic skills but doesn't appear to have anything past that, and his fights are so unimpressive. He was getting outclassed in every aspect of mma on dwcs, and only won after his opponent fractured his arm & couldn't maintain his pace. And of course, getting slept cold by Jordan leavitt is just insane. His chin seems terrible and he doesn't have any power on the feet, just puts out a lot of volume. Nolan should ko him in 1 but he really doesn't impress me that much; might be a massive fraud

Sy vs Trocoli
SY KO RD 2

trocoli is such a baffling signing. Apparently hes no longer with dern so that makes it even more confusing as to why he was signed. Trocoli is a part time fighter, as evidenced by him having 4 fights in the past 5 years. The minimal tape of him that you can find doesn't showcase much either. The few things I could glean are that he is a massive human and clearly on steroids, everything else seems bad. Sure, hes massive but his striking seems pretty pedestrian. Not to say Sy's is any better (and ive seen him cracked before), but Trocoli genuinely doesn't look like he knows what hes doing on the feet. Trocoli is supposed to be a grappler but that isn't very impressive either. Seems like he knows the basics of grappling but not much beyond that. Sy's grappling on the other hand, looks really good. I have seen him get taken down pretty easily, but he is very good at keeping ahold of his hooks & using them to put himself in an advantageous position. His scrambling ability is also very impressive. When he gets the back, hes got a really good rnc & also throws great gnp; one of his fights he put the guy stiff with gnp from back control, that's some scary power. I don't want to call him a lock because there are so many questions on trocoli, but I think this will be a quick domination for sy


Vidal vs Gatto
Gatto SUB RD 2

Okay why is this 50/50 on tap, have you guys genuinely seen Vidal fight? she is literally talentless. I don't rate gatto very highly & do think the odds are off (not by much tho, -300 more accurate), but I really don't get why people are picking Vidal. Gatto should finish this, Vidal's ground game is laughable

Magomedov vs Alves
Magomedov KO RD 1

Im okay with Abus getting a freebie here. I don't think he is a fraud, just has **** cardio & it doesn't help the ufc has given him two very difficult fights. I don't think he will be top 15, but I do think he can be around the same level of a muradov/khizriev type guy. I think his striking is actually pretty good; he is lengthy and explosive, also very rangy and knows how to use that range. His front kicks are particularly effective. Abus has some decent wrestling in his back pocket as well, but he doesn't go to it as much as he should since it gasses him out quicker. He would have to massively sell here to lose this fight; Alves has been washed for over 5 years now, and him fighting at 185 just seems like hes collecting paychecks at this point. Even if Abus somehow doesn't get a round 1 ko, Alves's cardio is equally **** so I don't think he will be able to win a decision. Should be an easy finish for Abus, really shocked hes only -250 when guys like ducote and Nolan are nearing -400


Rodriguez vs Carnelossi
Rodriguez DEC

who cares. Maybe there's a good case for the dog but watching tape for one wmma fight is more than enough for me


Alatengheili vs Rodrigues
Rodrigues DEC

KR's career hasn't played out at all how I thought it would, but I like him in this matchup. Heili is weird because he is actually skilled yet only uses like 40% of his skillset. Heili's striking is limited, as he pretty much only uses his hands. His boxing is decent and he has really good power (no killer instinct tho), but he only head hunts & is generally low volume. It's not like his output is low, but he misses so many of his shots it's kind of insane. Conversely, heili is not defensively minded at all. He has a titanium chin & most of the time just walks into punches and tanks the damage. The main reason he has 9 losses tho is because he cannot deal with kickers at all; his 2 ufc losses were one sided dominations where he got his legs and body destroyed by kicks. KR's striking style is the exact type that gives heili fits. He is very dynamic and throws all kinds of kicks. Hes also very accurate as well, always throwing strikes in-between when his opponents throw. KR's ground game is pretty terrible but I don't think that will be an issue here. For one, Heili only attempts tds in round 3. Secondly, when he does end up on top, heili doesn't do anything dangerous. I doubt he gets KR down but KR does give his back all the time with his spinning attacks. Even if he does end up on his back, I think he has the explosivity to get back up. He is pretty low iq at times, but I think this is a very good matchup for KR

Ducote vs Demopolous
Ducote DEC 

The line on this fight worries me because demopolous is the queen of winning highway robberies. She is honestly one of my most disliked fighters for that reason; she is so terrible yet keeps winning fights she shouldn't. She was basically ktfo against Juarez before the meme armbar, and the Frey & murata fights were highway robbery; especially the latter, as somehow spending 12 minutes on your back wins you a fight. That being said, I think her luck runs out here (hopefully). Ducote has severely underperformed in the ufc but I have a very hard time seeing how she loses outside of another robbery. Demopolous is a good grappler, but she has no skills to get the fight to the ground. instead, she tries to be a striker but she sucks at that as well. Now, both girls are very hittable but the difference is ducote knows how to roll with them where demopolous just tanks damage and throws back. The striking really shouldn't be close at all, as ducote's volume is over double what demopolous outs out. Ducote also knows how to strike, and throws tons of leg kicks and uses her other weapons like elbows. The real kicker for me is the tdd; ducote has a 90% tdd and we know demop has no wrestling to get it down. Thusly, this will be a striking match and I think ducote will win. However, ufc loves demopolous and given how wide the line is, it makes me think they are cooking up another robbery in her favor.

Barboza vs Murphy
Murphy KO RD 3

this is such a tricky fight to call. I don't think Leone is nearly as good as his record shows, and he has gotten pretty lucky in a few fights as well. His main issue is wrestling but that shouldn't play a role here against a striker in Edson. I have no idea how to get a read on Murphy; it's clear he is a very good striker with a ton of power, but he really doesn't look that impressive in most of his fights. Culibao fight was pretty competitive until round 3, highway robbery against Santos, lost round 1 to makwan, beats up a bw, etc. In all, I just don't know where to rate him because some of these performances are not great & it's against overmatched opponents. Then with Edson, you have an ultra vet who always puts on good performances. Despite his recent form, there is a LOT of wear n tear on Edson. the win was great, but Edson also got the **** kicked out of him until sodiq gassed out from inexperience. Then we go back to 2022 and he got dominated in one-sided bouts against thug nasty (not aging well) and giga (also aging poorly). And I don't use dominated lightly, he had barely any success against both. The other issue is the blueprint to beat edson is right there. If you aren't a grappler, you just need to stay in his face & pressure him, and he will melt; his cardio and durability aren't what they used to be. I want to say Murphy can beat him to the punch, but he is also a technical boxer so I don't really know for sure. There's two things making this really difficult for me: 1. Murphy isn't even a prospect at this point, hes nearly 33 and has spent a lot of time on the sidelines & also not super impressive. 2. As good as Edson is, I don't think he can keep pulling these wins out of his ass continuously. He has had a bit of revitalization, but at the end of the day he is nearly 40 and has a ton of milage. I think I will go with Murphy for now, but I will be watching more tape on this all week. Im pretty conflicted on this one


Williams vs Harris
Williams KO RD 2

Man this is a tough fight to call. Ive always really liked harris's game, but he is old and very unorthodox. Williams on the other hand, is the definition of an overachiever. On paper he looks like a solid top 25 WW, but when you watch him fight it's obvious to see he only gets by on physical qualities and not skill. Williams only knows how to brawl & throw looping shots with reckless abandon. It's hard to deal with when he blitzes you, but if you have good enough footwork it is very easy to outpoint Williams. Williams is also very hittable, but nothing seems to phase him; he will just tank damage & immediately throws back. Harris's technique isn't much better, he throws his punches from his hips & also only throws wild, looping shots. His striking is honestly quite similar to Khaos's, minus the speed and athleticism. The main thing that gives Chaos issues is people who move a lot; we saw him struggle badly against Bedoya, brown, Michel, and baeza (to some extent) because they were constantly on their bikes and wouldn't brawl with him. Harris does move around, but he is clunky & slow. Again, he also lacks the athleticism of khaos, which I think will give him a lot of issues. Same goes with durability, Khaos seemingly doesn't react to pain & will throw back every time you hit him, where Harris's chin is a little soft. Harris has the grappling upside but I don't see him getting takedowns as Kahos is very hard to take down. I really don't like this pick because 1. Chaos is very limited and 2. it seems like hes reached his ceiling, but at the same time I kind of think he will be able to meme his way to a win here. If Harris was a younger guy id be worried, but he is pretty old & I don't think his movement is good enough to stick & move for 15 minutes without getting hit.

Brahimaj vs Gorimbo 
Brahimaj SUB RD 1

gonna be a very unpopular pick but I don't care. No amount of backstory or freebie matchups will convince me themba is a good fighter. He has definitely improved since then, but hes still not great imo. Now, I don't love this pick because ufc is clearly trying to give thumb another highlight reel, but I think Ramiz's grappling is good enough to get a win here. Themba's grappling just doesn't do it for me; he gets carried a lot by his physical abilities rather than his skills. Themba has poor tdd and makes mistakes all the time on the mat. He got fletcher down easily, but had no idea how to maintain control & was easily reversed throughout the fight. Even sato (embarrassingly bad grappler) was getting takedowns and finding his way to his feet pretty easily. I don't think Ramiz is a phenom on the mat, but he is very aggressive early on & in his wins he is able to aggressively shoot & crank subs to get the win. I also think Ramiz will be able to reverse position if themba is able to end on top. What concerns me is the Mcgee fight; Ramiz not only got outclassed, but he wanted out of that fight the second he was forced to be the nail (look at his face -- you can visibly see the discomfort). Now, Mcgee is much stronger and just a better grappler overall than themba, but Ramiz's lack of heart was extremely concerning to me. I don't see this playing out on the feet for too long, but Ramiz is also a big liability standing, as he has no defense and doesn't like to get hit. Themba sucks on standup, but he is very long & has gained this very weird ko power since going to the ufc (💉), so Ramiz will have to be careful. I think more likely than not Ramiz is going to quit again, but I really think he has a good chance early. Themba's grappling is very sloppy imo & he has been subbed by much worse guys than Ramiz.
Yanez vs Salvador
Yanez KO RD 2

this is a weird layup fight. I get they want to give yanez a free win, but they really couldn't get someone in his own weight class? Not only is Salvador a flyweight, but he is bottom of the barrel when ti comes to 125ers. This guy got signed for going to war with Shannon ross, nuff said. He fights like a d-grade Anderson silva; same style but without any of the good qualities & all the bad ones. Yanez is a fraud (imo) but I really doubt he loses this one. His only issue is defense but Salvador is just as hittable. That being said, I do think this goes till round 2. I feel like yanez is going to feel out the fight early (also because he needs his confidence back) and then sleep him next round. Hes taken worse guys into later rounds before

Hill vs Pinheiro
Hill DEC

Hill fights are always impossible to pick. every time she should win she loses, and vice versa. in her last 4, she has looked very good in her wins but then got dominated pillar to post against dern. That loss is also aging horribly so it really comes across as an anomaly given hills recent performances. Round 1 of this fight could look very similar, Luana goes balls to the wall & throws very hard for a woman. I doubt she gets a ko, but I am expecting her to either knock down or rock hill badly in round 1. Hill is very durable but her chin is weird; almost like anthony smiths a little bit in that she will have terrible reactions to being hit, but somehow durable enough to survive. Luana has no cardio and doesn't know how to pace herself, so the third round will automatically be hill's. That means whoever takes the second round is going to win the fight. I lean hill because she is very experienced when it comes to close fights, but at the same time she has also lost like 5 decisions she clearly won so what do I know. I just really don't like how Luana is a gas bag; she's honestly the more skilled fighter but she has consistently fallen apart after the 8 minute mark. Hill is historically very durable, and always fights at a high clip so I think she will win this. Would not be shocked to see Luana win by knocking down hill in 1 &2 and then gassing bad in 3 but winning a decision.

Very true about gorimbo. If AJ Fletcher can sub you then ramiz definitely can 

The UFC apex has a 25ft octagon, which is five feet smaller than a typical octagon. Anyone fighting from a long layoff typically struggles.

* Edited at 05.12.2024, 9:29 PM ET *

Just cant see Edson keeping this streak up, his career is running on fumes got the perfect ko against Quarantillo but was getting dog walked by Sodiq Yusuff until he gassed it seems like this is gonna be where it ends for Barboza 

@Quickcobalt 

Holy Lord... Do you even watch the UFC?
That breakdown maybe had 1 braincell used in total.

looking forward to see what Sy can do

@ CrimsonChinGuru  
what was wrong with my assessment?

Says the guy with the PFP of a one eyed psychopath and a nice big tomato 🍅  😆 

And then I thought... lets look at this 🤡 picks record.. 

75% ? Not bad! But how does someone who is clearly ******** have a pick percentage that high?

Let's look a little closer at the fight cards he is picking.. 

This guy has a more padded record than Askar Mozarov 

LOL LOL LOL LOL 😆 😂 🤣 😅 🙃 😄 😆 😂 🤣 LOL 👍 😆 😂 🤣 😄 😅 👍 😆 😂 🤣 😄 😅 👍 😆 😂 🤣 😄 😅 👍 

Guerra En La Baja? Gladiator 026? Alles Oder Nichts? Gohueng Rumble? Tankograd? Treasure Boxing 6? Muradov Professional League 9? Lorch Fight Night?

😂😆😂😂😂😂😂😂😆😂😂😆😂😄🤭🤭🤭🤭😄😄😂😂🤭😄🤭

Bro hang your head in shame. You were even getting half of THOSE predictions wrong. And that was only the first 2 pages LOL

GTFOH

* Edited at 05.13.2024, 5:51 AM ET *

I was interested in how Edson had performed statistically since moving down to featherweight so I did the calculations.

Strikes per minute: 4.41 landed to 4.58 absorbed, 49% accuracy and 51% defense
TDs 0.44 per 15 minutes with 75% accuracy. 50% TDD.

His overall numbers can be found at http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/64a50dad704d1d49

So compared to his overall numbers it's fairly similar with the striking although a bit more landed and absorbed both and his striking defense has went down from 57% to 51%. I think that can be explained by the Apex where he's had several fights which I believe increases the amount of action both ways for someone with Barboza's style.

The big change is his TDD which is 75% overall but only 50% at featherweight (9 out of 18). Again Apex could have something to do with this because it favors grappling as well, but it's also mostly dependent on who you face of course (such as Bryce Mitchell who landed 4/4 in a big cage).

Fun fact, the sodiq yusuff fight was the first main event Edson won

 I confused Da'mon Marquel  with Themba Gorimbo;  thought I had a winning bet.  Back to the drawing board.   

Themba has been showing improvement fight to fight and Brahimaj hasn't fought in over 2 years. On paper it's actually a pretty good matchup because Brahimaj definitely has some skills but Themba should have this one in the bag. Brahimaj is literally sub or bust and I'm not counting out Themba just because he lost to AJ Fletcher. AJ Fletcher should arguably still be on the roster over someone like Brahimaj.

Themba is the closest thing to a marketable African fighter that the UFC has. He's on the main card for a reason: to win and look good doing it. 

A marketable African fighter? What about DuPlessis?

*Adesanya has entered the chat

LOL 😆